Monaco – Race Analysis

It is difficult to separate Monaco from Formula One history. The slow speed layout reduces the engine differences, the tight corners reduce aerodynamical deficits and drivers become more important. Some of the greatest F1 drivers have had memorable races in this race track. The first Monaco Grand Prix was actually in 1929, but for Formula One it all began with the yet to be 5-time world champion Juan Manuel Fangio, who won in 1950.

Graham Hill was the original Mr. Monaco, with 5 wins in the 60’s. Michael Schumacher later matched the 5 wins, but when he did, Ayrton Senna had already won 6 times. It could have been 7 for Senna, had the 1984 race not been controversially stopped due to rain, when he drove a Toleman to 2nd – that would be equivalent to a Spyker winning the race today, for those who are not old enough to remember Senna’s greatness.

Where do I want to get with all this history and nothing about the 2007 Grand Prix? Well, the first statement is that it is not a coincidence that the winner was the current world champion, Fernando Alonso – actually, twice world champion and also twice a Monaco winner. The second statement is that the race itself had not much going on for me to write about, so I had to write about something else... Most seemed happy with the positions they held and even those who did not – such as Hamilton and Raikkonen – could not do anything to change the results as it is almost impossible to overtake in the tight street circuit. The rain that could spice up the race never showed up, so it was just another race, not a great race. Still, there are a few things that I wish to analyse with a little more detail...

Alonso proves that Hamilton is McLaren’s no. 2

Fernando Alonso can say whatever he wants, but I am certain that he was affected by Lewis Hamilton’s recent pace. The world press kept saying that his teammate was faster, and Alonso had not much to answer, as he was clearly slower in the past 2 races. Yesterday he showed the world who is the boss in McLaren.

Actually, it all started yesterday during qualifying. Lewis Hamilton seemed faster, but did not give enough distance to traffic before starting his last flying lap. That was a rookie mistake, as were the two or three times he brushed the wall during the race. In the post-race conference even Hamilton acknowledged that he was McLaren’s number 2 driver [1].

The way Hamilton drove during this weekend makes me feel like he is not that special after all. I mean, the guy is great, but he is human. He makes mistakes. He is young and eager to win, but does not know when to hold back. After the first races almost everyone seemed to have the feeling that Hamilton was better than any other rookies they had ever seen. Well, he is just lucky to have a great car. There are many other young drivers who could do the same good job in McLaren – Nelson Piquet Jr., for example. I am sure Heikki Kovalainen would not struggle so much if he drove for McLaren. Don’t get me wrong, Hamilton is great. He will fight for championships. Right now, though, he is McLaren’s number 2. The good thing for him is that he knows it.

Massa proves that Raikkonen is Ferrari’s no.2 – for now, at least

This is not yet clear as it is in McLaren, but I believe Ferrari also has defined its number 1 driver. Felipe Massa was expected to get the upper hand in the beginning of the season, but by now Kimi Raikkonen should be closer to him. This is not happening. Raikkonen’s mistake during Qualifying 2 is hard to be understood. Not much effort was needed to put the Ferrari in the top 10 for the final qualifying session. So why did Raikkonen hit the inside wall as he got out of the famous Swimming Pool section?

Since Kimi has the highest salary in Ferrari, I am sure that no decision was made by the team bosses. It is clear who the favourite among the mechanics is – Massa. His performance yesterday was nothing to write home about. But it was the smart thing to do, since the next two races – Canada and United States – should favour Ferrari. It is also nice to save the engine before the fast Montreal circuit. I am sure that Michael Schumacher gave Felipe a little helping hand in deciding this strategy!

Monaco’s quick notes

- Giancarlo Fisichella proved that experience is what counts in Monaco, as he finished 4th with the very hard to drive Renault R27.

- BMW finished a solid 5th and 6th, with Kubica and Heidfeld respectively. The one-pit-stop strategy paid-off, but I wonder if they could not finish better if they had lower fuel loads during qualifying. I guess they were expecting a safety car period that could make them win the race, but why try that with both cars?

- When everyone expected Nico Rosberg to score points for Williams after he qualified 5th, a poor start put him for many laps behind Heidfeld, who had a heavy load of fuel. That cost Nico his race, as he ended up in 12th place. At least that helped his teammate Alexander Wurz to score 2 points in 7th.

- Anthony Davidson held back Felipe Massa for many laps, and was penalised with a drive-through. Later on, he said that Massa was not close enough, so he did not open up for him to pass. This is pretty dumb thinking for a driver who is being lapped and has blue flags waived at him corner after corner. After the drive-through, he returned to the track behind teammate Takuma Sato and lost the only battle that could prove anything in his favour.

- Scott Speed started 18th and finished 9th. Besides great strategy by STR, this shows that Speed has taken seriously the rumours about him losing his ride for 2008. This was his best race ever. He still needs to improve if he wants to keep his job, though.

Star of the race:

Fernando Alonso. Hat-trick: pole, best lap, win.

Shame of the race:

Anthony Davidson. Kimi Raikkonen almost got this award after Saturday’s crash, but at least he saved 1 point.

References

[1] Formula One official web site, ‘FIA post-race press conference – Monaco’

--Andre N.

Spain – Race Analysis

The 2007 Spanish Grand Prix started off really well, with a lot of action during the first lap, including a fight for first place between Massa and Alonso. Then we saw a race in which no one was actually making a move on anybody else. Since Barcelona is the track that most of the teams use for their large bulk of testing, the results are usually very predictable. This time, though, a few incidents messed around with the final results. Due to this fact, we now have the youngest ever championship leader – Lewis Hamilton, 22 years old – and Super Aguri with their first ever championship point as Takuma Sato finished 8th.

Fast and Furious: Felipe vs. Fernando

Fernando Alonso, who was very aggressive all his all to Formula One, has been mostly self-controlled over the past years, especially after he got a car that could make him a champion. I cannot tell if he is frustrated for not having the best car, but the move on Massa’s outside right after the start reminded me of the younger Alonso from Formula 3000. He tried to intimidate Felipe as much as he could, by forcing him to the inside of the first right-hander, allowing for an overtake manoeuvre in the subsequent left-hander. His only mistake is that he tried that against the wrong guy...

Everyone knows Felipe Massa is an aggressive driver. He has shown that over the years. As Alonso attacked, his natural reaction was to counterattack. Aggressiveness sometimes pays off in Formula One. It did for Massa in Spain, contrary to what happened in Malaysia. This time though, he was the one on the inside. It was risky, but the fact that he got away with no damage makes him look like a genius. Let’s give him credit. That was a Michael Schumacher-like move.

I believe it was a normal race incident because Alonso was the one on the outside and the one trying to pass. Therefore, he caused the situation that led to the contact between the two cars. Although Fernando was very upset at the end of the race, he did not say at any time that it was Felipe’s fault. Deep inside he knows that the accident was avoidable.

After the complicated start, Massa drove a pretty straightforward race, opening a large gap to Hamilton and in the end just saved the equipment – especially the engine. The only other scary moment was when some fuel spilled and caught fire over his engine cover as he exited the pits. He later explained in the press conference [1] that he did not know it had happened, so it did not interfere with his race. Let’s say it was his lucky day.

Luck apart, Felipe Massa is still in my opinion the strongest candidate for the title (related post: ‘Felipe Massa – 2007 F1 world champion?’). But the fact that Kmi Raikkonen was unlucky yesterday helps Felipe’s cause.

Hamilton: Youngest ever championship leader

Four podiums in his four first races and the championship lead at the age of 22 years and 127 days. These are two records that show how well-prepared Hamilton. He is still playing safe, though, and is yet to show the same form from last year’s GP2 championship, when we could say he was a potential race winner any time he lined up on the grid. But there are only three major barriers before he becomes one of the all-time greatest. He must: 1) win a race; 2) consistently win races; 3) win a championship.

Hamilton must watch out for Alonso, though, as the Spaniard does not seem very happy about this situation. Alonso even stated at the press conference [1] that he considers Hamilton an opponent just as he considers Massa and Raikkonen. It does not seem like Alonso is friends with a lot of people in F1, but Hamilton should try to get closer to him as much as possible before it becomes a war within the team. If it does, I am sure that the easygoing Hamilton can handle it emotionally better than Alonso, but this kind of dispute would be good for no one except Ferrari.

McLaren’s suspicious front wing

From McLaren’s onboard camera point of view, it was easy to see that there was relative movement between the nose cone and the new wing element, especially in the long frontstretch – where it was possible to see the element going down. Since the nose is rigid, it is pretty clear to me that the wing is flexible. This is against F1 regulations. McLaren will benefit from the fact that the FIA does not have a standard for testing these so-called aerodynamic appendices, only the main wing parts. But at one point there will be a new regulation or these types of aerodynamic parts will be banned for good. If Ferrari and BMW had flexible chassis for the first 3 races, McLaren now has a flexible front wing.

Spain’s quick notes

- BMW made a stupid mistake on Nick Heidfeld’s first pit stop, as they sent him back to the track with a loose front wheel. Later he had gearbox problems, which shows that the car is still not reliable enough.

- Jenson Button also made a stupid mistake by hitting Barrichello’s rear wheel as he left the pits. He only lost his front wing, but that move could have cost both Honda cars the race.

- Fisichella had to make an extra stop after the fuel pump did not provide enough fuel on the second pit stop. These fuel pumps are very reliable these days, so it could be a human mistake while programming the pump. Whatever happened, though, allowed Takuma Sato to finish ahead of Fisichella in 8th.

- David Coulthard drove a superb race. Although RBR has improved a lot, it is still not as good as Coulthard made it seem. He drove the last part of the race without 3rd gear. Since the cars have sequential gearboxes, that meant he had only 4th gear and above. Still, he was able to hold Nico Rosberg’s attack and finish 5th.

- Alexander Wurz hit Ralf Schumacher’s left-rear wheel on a first lap incident. Wurz had to retire. Although Ralf had to hit the breaks hard due at an unexpected spot due to a melee just ahead of him, I am not sure that the impact was unavoidable. A great driver would be expecting this sort of situation happening on the first lap. Maybe Wurz is not a great driver.

Star of the race:

Felipe Massa.

Shame of the race:

The BMW pit crew.

References

[1] Formula One official web site, ‘FIA post-race press conference – Spain’

--Andre N.

Bahrain – Race Analysis

This time we had a reasonable F1 race. Unlike the first two races of the season, the 2007 Bahrain Grand Prix had a little bit of a fight for the victory. The race was fun to watch, with many overtaking manoeuvres, although most of them for positions outside the points. Drivers had a hard time controlling their cars, especially when going out of the race line and onto the thin sand that covered the least used asphalt. Due to that, there were many off-track excursions. Rising above all the problems, Felipe Massa got his first win of the season and Alonso had his worst result – 5th – making the championship battle even closer.

Felipe Massa drove like a champion

Massa really drove like a champion. This is what Jean Todt said on the radio after Felipe crossed the line. He got the hat trick – pole position, best lap, win – which is already impressive. Hamilton’s pursuit did not alter his concentration. Add to that the fact that he came from a disappointing result last week, after a mistake that was solely his fault, and we may have two ‘icemen’ in Ferrari.

I have written in this blog that I believe Massa is the strongest contender for the title (‘Felipe Massa – 2007 F1 world champion?’) and have given many reasons for this. The speed and focus that he showed yesterday are two characteristics of a champion. I also have a feeling that Michael Schumacher treats him like his pupil. Massa has admitted that they spoke about Malaysia right after the race. That cannot hurt, can it? If I were Raikkonen I would start listening to Schumacher as well.

Lewis Hamilton rewrites the record books

Hamilton is a great driver, who got to Formula One better prepared than most before him. And Ron Dennis gave him a great car. Now he takes his 3rd consecutive podium, in his first 3 races, and he is the only rookie to have ever accomplished that. He beat Alonso all weekend long. There is nothing else to say about this guy.

Wait, there is. After Malaysia’s press conference, some people had the point of view that he was way overexcited, maybe even joking about Massa’s mistake. I do not think that was the case, he is just a young kid having fun. To strengthen my point of view, after yesterday’s race he put his car right next to Massa’s and applauded his opponent’s performance. He may only be a kid, but he is definitely one who respects his adversaries.

What is wrong with Raikkonen?

Kimi Raikkonen may never show his emotions, but deep down he knows he has found his match at Ferrari. Massa will drive many other races like he did in Bahrain, and Kimi will not be able to catch him. There is one extra pressure: he gets paid a lot more than Felipe, so he is expected to be faster.

He seems to have taken a hit from Massa’s phoenix-like rebirth from the ashes. His race was filled with apathy. He was not the driver he normally is, who pushes hard even when the car is not great, trying to force the others to make mistakes. He did the right thing at the start, trying to overtake Hamilton, but then he paid the price of not being able to finish the move and got passed by Alonso. Good thing he had a couple more laps of fuel during the first stint, otherwise he would ride all the way to park fermé stuck behind the McLaren. He has 3 weeks to think about his performance before the next grand prix.

Heidfeld vs. Alonso

Heideld got by Alonso with a fantastic move on the outside. BMW seems to be stronger every race, and maybe they will challenge Ferrari and McLaren for the win in a few races. Since they do not seem to have as much top speed, it is more probable to happen at a track with less straightaways. Well, Monaco is only two races away...

Alonso would have to have a bad race at some point. This was it. Heidfeld got by him because he made a small mistake. It will take him a while to digest Heidfeld’s pass, but the 4 points he got will count a lot by the end of the season. I am sure that if he ends up behind Heidfeld anytime soon, he will go for a bold move in exchange for the one he got yesterday.

Bahrain’s quick notes

- Anthony Davidson had a good race until his engine blew up. It seems like it could have been even better, though. For some reason Super Aguri filled his tank with a lot of fuel, so he only made his first pit stop in lap 28 of 57. His car seemed fast enough to match the others with equal amounts of fuel, so there was no reason for him to have a different strategy. Maybe they already knew that the engine could probably not take the extra revs...

- RBR is showing more speed. Chief engineer Adrian Newey is certainly behind this, as his nickname should be ‘continuous improvement’. Hopefully they will solve the reliability problems in a few races and fight for points. Both Webber and Coulthard got out with transmission problems – gearbox and driveshaft, respectively.

- Williams seemed to be a car that could finish in the points, but both Rosberg and Wurz made many mistakes and finished only 10th and 11th. Rosberg seemed to be suffering from the same disease that plagued Massa in Malaysia: lack of patience.

- Like yesterday, Rubens Barrichello and Ralf Schumacher had memorable battles in the past, when Rubens drove for Ferrari and Ralf for Williams. Those where battles for more relevant positions though, worth championship points or places on the podium. They met more than once in Bahrain, but both have disappointing cars now. Ralf took his Toyota to 12th place and Rubens his Honda to 13th. Their battles were fun to watch, as usual.

- Trulli drove very well, maintaining his fame of a driver who is almost impossible to be overtaken. He held both Williams’ drivers at one point, causing them to make many mistakes. In the end, he finished 7th, holding a faster Fisichella, who tried hard to go by on the last few laps.

Star of the race:

Nick Heidfeld. I could also say Felipe Massa, but the Heidfeld’s performance had a surprise appeal that got him this award. Passing the current world champion on the outside also helped.

Shame of the race:

Adrian Sutil. He had an excuse for every trouble in the beginning of the previous two races. Now he just hit Scott Speed from behind, period. He came back to finish the race, but he needs to improve his concentration if he wants to keep his job.

--Andre N.

Malaysia – Race Analysis

Malaysia 2007 was not a race that will be remembered as one of the greatest in the history of Formula One, but there was some action among the boringness. Fernando Alonso, though, will keep the trophy as one of his most memorable races: a perfect drive for his first McLaren win. Ferrari – Felipe Massa at least – seemed faster all weekend long, but somehow the victory slipped out of their hands. Let's analyse how...

The start: Advantage to second place

Is it just me or the starting grid in Malaysia gave an advantage to whoever qualified on the right hand side - i.e., 2nd, 4th, and other even positions? Why does the pole sitter start on the left side? The first corner is to the right. It would only make sense for the pole sitter to start on the left side if that were the race line where cars would normally go by. The race line has tyre rubber all over it and provides more grip for acceleration, being an advantage to whoever starts on top of it.

In Malaysia, the last corner is a left hander. Therefore, drivers exit the last corner on the right side of the track and go across the straightway to take the first corner from the left side. So the race line is actually diagonally across the starting grid. Since there is no better grip on either side, the best starting position is on the right – exactly where Alonso and Hamilton started – because it is an advantage going into the first corner. It is not a surprise that both got by their same-row opponents – Massa and Raikkonen, respectively – on the first corner.

Alonso not only got first place, but also blocked the way for Massa to take the inside line. As he took the first corner from the outside, Massa got on the dirty part of the track, outside the race line. This allowed Hamilton to drive side-by-side and carry more speed out of the next left hander. Two corners after the start, McLaren had a huge advantage, just because they started from the even grid positions. Someone at the FIA must have seen this...

Clean race for Alonso

Alonso is the man who takes whichever opportunity he has and scores the most out of it. I have compared him to Emerson Fittipaldi before, and I think the comparison is suitable again. After qualifying second, Alonso would be happy to finish in that position and take 8 points. With the advantage at the start, the opportunity was to win, so he drove one flying lap after another, without making any mistakes. It was a perfect race. Even without the help from Hamilton, who held Massa and Raikkonen, he would have won.

Hamilton: Too good to be true

Is Hamilton really a rookie, racing only his second F1 race? The guy is unbelievable. He drives like a veteran. He sometimes makes minor mistakes – a lock-up or a trip off-track –, but he never lets them interfere on the race result. He held Massa like Alonso would. And I am sure that with more experience, he will be able to race like Alonso did yesterday, as well. He lacks only a little bit of speed and lap-time consistency, but he will get there by the end of the season.

Massa beyond the limit

Massa wanted the win so much that he forgot the championship is 17 races long. Had he thought about the championship, he would have been more careful. He could have finished at least third, better than the fifth he got after the off-track excursion that was the result from trying too hard to overtake Hamilton.

I cannot blame him much, though. At least he tried something. It was exciting to watch. Unfortunately he made the biggest error in a weekend in which few drivers made mistakes. I will have to call him the ‘Shame of the Race’... The fact that he allowed Heidfeld’s BMW to finish ahead of him was decisive. Ferrari is still better than BMW, he should have finished ahead.

Modest race for Raikkonen, but he gets 6 points

Raikkonen is paid a lot more than Massa – 3 to 4 times. He should be faster than Massa. He is not at this point. It was Massa who made the mistake and let Raikkonen go by. Raikkonen did nothing more than, for example, what Rubens Barrichello would have done as a Ferrari driver. I expect a lot more from him.

He later explained that Ferrari was not giving full power to his engine, trying to avoid a breakdown after the water leak in Australia. Still, he was very close to Hamilton on the first stint, he could have at least pulled the car to the side entering corners, trying to cause a mistake by Hamilton.

Malaysia’s quick notes

- Rubens Barrichello had one of the greatest races of his career, starting last after an engine failure and finishing 11th on the ridiculously slow Honda, ahead of teammate Button. No one cares about 11th, though...

- Nico Rosberg had a great race and was robbed of a second consecutive points finish as his car broke down. The cause is still unconfirmed, but the DNF is not a surprise, as Williams has been unreliable during 2006 as well.

- Williams’ speed was confirmed by the great race that Alexander Wurz drove, starting 19th and finishing 9th. Although he finished the race, we can also say that he did not score points due to lack of reliability, since he had gearbox problems in qualifying.

Star of the race:

McLaren: Both drivers were great, but the team strategy was also perfect.

Shame of the race:

Felipe Massa: At least he admitted his own mistake.

--Andre N.

Correction

Copy and paste can cause trouble if you don't read what you write. I have sent this link to more than a couple of people. Please consider the correct one below:


http://f1monday.blogspot.com/2007/04/malaysia-race-analysis.html

Traction Control Ban

Last week the FIA has announced that traction control will be banned for the 2008 season. It has been banned before, in 1993, but was then re-allowed in 2001, since the stewards stated that it was not possible to scrutinize an electronic feature within different and complex control units. In 2008 the electronic control unit – ECU – will be the same for every team, so now the FIA considers it possible to guarantee that no team will have ‘hidden’ traction control programmes.

Some people argue that Formula One should not only be the pinnacle of motorsports, but the pinnacle of engineering as well. They say that if this feature is banned, the technology in F1 would be at a lower level than what we see in productions cars. They are partially right.

A Formula One car is a combination of high level engineering in all components and features. The ECU and traction control are only a couple of them. I am sure that the teams’ budgets will not be reduced just because traction control was banned. This money will go to something else. Therefore, engineering will continue at the highest possible level, just the focus will be changed.

Others argue that some drivers would not be able to control their cars without traction control, because ‘they are not good enough’. I do not agree with this either. In order to reach Formula One, a driver must compete in other series. Most of these series – GP2, Formula 3, Formula Renault, Formula BMW, and many others – do not have traction control. Every single F1 driver has driven cars without traction control for most of their careers. Even drivers who are not the greatest, but got to F1 due to good sponsors.

I don’t think we are going to see cars swinging their backs at the corner exits, as it was common in the past. The cars are still too much dependent on aerodynamic grip, so if the tail starts to spin out in medium and high speed corners, there still will be no way to regain control. Maybe with the return of the slick tyres this will be possible. That will not happen in 2008, though. Also, with the current race tyres, the better lap times come from the smallest steering inputs and no excessive over- or understeer. To have a measure of what I am saying, compare karting in the 80’s – when oversteering was fastest – with today’s races – the cleaner the racing line, the faster.

The nice thing is that races will be more fun to watch. The change is the fact that drivers will need to concentrate both on the entrance and exit of a corner. Today they just press the throttle down after the apex and electronics does the rest. Next year drivers will have twice as much relevant pedal input as they do today: throttle will matter as much as brake. It is like having twice as much race action as we do today. I do not think it will have much of an impact in the results of the races or championship. Is there anyone out there who thinks Michael Schumacher would not be a champion without traction control? Or that Ayrton Senna would be beaten with traction control?

At least the fans were heard when they urged for more driver influence in the results. Just the fact that the FIA wants to add more excitement to the races is enough for this to be a change for better.


--Andre N.

Australia – Race Analysis

Nice country, good weather, great public. The first race of the 2007 F1 season had the perfect scenario, yet the race itself was not that exciting. The front runners were not fighting for positions, the real action was happening on the back of the pack. Kimi Raikkonen did not worry about this, though. He took 10 points for the win, knowing that Ferrari is better than all the other teams and that his main rival at this time – his teammate, Felipe Massa – is 7 points behind him in the Drivers’ Championship. Let’s analyse the details...

Kimi Raikkonen: Great start for his Ferrari career

What else can we say when a driver takes pole, times the fastest lap of the race and wins? He did not have to push, as his main contender – Massa – had already been defeated by a gear box failure in qualifying. Kimi drove perfectly except for a lack of concentration on lap 46, in which he braked too late and put a wheel on the grass. He had no radio communication, because it broke just before the race. But he is the ‘Ice Man’, isn’t he? His focus was enough for that not to have an impact on the final result.

I also like the fact that he took both his hands off the wheel and raised both arms to celebrate, just before crossing the finish line. He almost lost control of his car, but that was fun to watch. He is becoming a little more Italian as he spends more days in Ferrari. This will help him inside the team, as mechanics tend to like drivers who put up a good show.

Alonso is Alonso once again, with a helping hand from McLaren

Alonso was himself once again. Or was he Alain Prost? I have certainly seen this ‘not so fast, but constant’ approach to racing before... Fernando Alonso did manage to score 8 points in a race that should have been a Ferrari 1-2. He also drove some very fast laps as Hamilton got in for his second pit stop, and managed to overtake him in the pits.

What McLaren will never tell us is that it was their intention for Alonso to beat Hamilton. Otherwise, they would never put 3 more laps of fuel in Alonso’s tank. OK, someone has to pit first, but why change the order from the first stop? Strange, to say the least.

Hamilton shows why he drives for McLaren

I have already written that I find Lewis Hamilton to be a very intelligent, self-controlled person, and that would help him become a great F1 driver. I just did not think he would be this good in his first race. The move he made just after the start was amazing, overtaking two cars at once. Also impressive was his pace. He was as quick as Alonso for the entire race. He lost the second position for two reasons: 1) he was held by backmarker Sato before his second pit stop; 2) McLaren’s strategy favoured his teammate (as I wrote in my comments about Alonso, just above).

Hamilton has shown why McLaren hired him. It is almost a shame that he is not driving for a smaller team. It would be a good show. Who can forget when then-rookie Ayrton Senna drove for Toleman in 1984? What would Hamilton do if he drove for Super Aguri, for example?

Trouble for Massa, but satisfactory results

If Felipe Massa learned anything from Michael Schumacher, it was that he needs to take whatever points he can when the day is not right. Starting in 22nd, Massa drove all the way to 6th. I have read over the Internet forums many complaints for his lack of attitude when he was behind the two Hondas. I guess Schumacher would not wait as many laps, but it was not that bad. In the end, it cost Massa 1 point, as he would probably have had time to overtake Fisichella. Felipe would never reach Heidfeld, though, as the latter finished almost 28 seconds ahead of Fisichella.

Australia’s quick notes

- Mixed results for BMW, with Heidfeld in 4th but Kubica forced to retire with gearbox problems. This is the tale of this car since pre-season testing. It seems like most of their reliability problems are related to the gearbox, though. They will certainly correct these problems in a few races, but until then they may have a few more DNF’s on the gearbox’s account.

- David Coulthard did what was probably the most stupid move of his career as he tried to pass Alexander Wurz for 13th. He was sensate enough to recognize his mistake and apologize. I must say that Coulthard is a true British gentleman, because nothing less would make Wurz accept his apologies – as he did –, since Coulthard’s wheel almost hit Wurz’s helmet during the crash.

- It is expected for rookies to make mistakes, but Heikki Kovalainen made so many that it makes me wonder if Nelson Piquet Jr. – Renault’s test driver – could not do better. I still believe Kovalainen will improve and will have more points than Fisichella by the end of the season.

- Nico Rosberg drove a quiet race and managed to score 2 points with his Toyota-powered Williams. In a bold overtaking move, he took 7th place from Toyota’s Ralf Schumacher, who finished 8th.

Star of the race:

Lewis Hamilton

Shame of the race:

Heikki Kovalainen

--Andre N.

Felipe Massa – 2007 F1 world champion?

We are less than a week away from the first race of the 2007 season. Pre-season testing is over. It is that time of the year again when every other F1 fan is discussing who will be the next F1 world champion.

For the past few weeks, I have been asking myself the same question that ended up as this post’s title. It is about the driver who has constantly topped the time charts during pre-season: Is Felipe Massa going to be the next F1 world champion? Of course no one can be 100% sure of such answer. All I could do was to come up with a logical approach. If real life is then illogical, as many times it is, things may change – but at least logic gave a starting point.

From what I know about Formula One and logic, the answer is simple.

Yes, Felipe Massa will be the 2007 F1 world champion.

So easy to say, yet so shocking. At first thought, the response by the logical approach would be either Fernando Alonso – 2005 and 2006 champion – or Kimi Raikkonen – 2003 and 2005 runner-up. Further analysis points to Massa, though.

Let’s take the step-by-step method to show how I came up with this answer. I will divide the response in match-ups with the other title contenders. If Massa wins them all, he is the virtual champion.

Match-up #1: Massa vs. Raikkonen

Ferrari will be the team to beat in 2007. The second half of 2006 and 2007 pre-season has shown that. I believe Ferrari will be the constructor champion – for more on that, check out my post ‘What about McLaren?’. If I am right, this is the key match-up for the drivers championship: Massa versus his own Ferrari teammate.

I believe Massa will beat Raikkonen. Massa is focused: He knows what he wants, is working hard and has learned everything he could from Schumacher. His mental state is great. Ferrari is his home. He loves the team, the team loves him. Kimi is the new guy there. When anyone makes a job change, there is a period of adaptation. In F1, this is not different. Even ‘The Iceman’ wil take some time to adapt. When he does, it will be hard for him to catch up to Massa, who will have a few more points.

Maybe it is just the press, but the fact that Raikkonen is told to be partying and drinking every other week does not seem to be a good thing. This blog is not about protesting against alcohol, but I have not heard about any recent champion athlete who drank half as much as Raikkonen is told to drink. Even if it is not entirely true, the fact that the press states it is will bother Kimi at some point. Felipe does not have this type of distraction in his quest for the championship.

Massa will win this match-up.

Match-up #2: Massa vs. Alonso (and Hamilton)

Both Massa and Alonso have always been lighting fast drivers. In the beginning of their careers, both would make many mistakes, trying to be faster when the car did not allow. At one point, Alonso stopped making mistakes. After that, he has 'suddenly' won 2 titles. Massa is at that point right now. He has stopped making the stupid mistakes from his early F1 career at Sauber.

Since both are - in my opinion - equally fast, and Massa is now becoming equally consistent, only one factor will be really deciding: the car. And Ferrari is better than McLaren at this time. Therefore, Massa will also win this match-up.

Note: I will not compare him to the less experienced Hamilton, since Alonso is the current world champion and should score more points than the rookie. If Massa can beat Alonso, he can beat Hamilton as well.

Match-up #3: Massa vs. Kovalainen

This match-up should be versus both Renault drivers. But I think Kovalainen will be faster, and Massa already beat Fisichella in 2006, so there is no point comparing to him. Still, the only way Kovalainen would beat Massa would be if Renault were faster. This has not been the case since the second half of the 2006 season in most tracks. Add to that Kovalainen's lack of experience and Massa wins another match-up.

Match-up #4: Massa vs. everybody else

Who else could be champion? Kubica or Heidfeld and the surprising BMW? They still have reliability problems that will cost them a few points. They will surprise at some races, but will disappoint in many others.

No one else seems to have a car good enough to consistently beat Ferrari. Not Honda, not Toyota, not Williams, not anyone. Therefore, Massa wins all the remaining match-ups.

The bottom line

Massa is a winner. He has won every category he has raced after karting. He has won Brazilian Formula Chevrolet in 1999, the Italian and European Formula Renault in 2000, and the Formula 3000 Euro-Series in 2001. Why can’t he also be Formula One champion? This seems to be his year.

--Andre N.

F1 Online Competition

http://motorsport.com/compete/p6/

The link above is a nice web competition. No prizes – except for glory – are given, but it is really fun to compare yourself to people all over the world. It is called Pick 6 because of the former F1 point format, but you actually pick the top 8 drivers.

Since you must make your pick before Friday practice, surprises do not interfere in the result – it affects everyone in the same manner.

--Andre N.

Schumacher’s last race – I was there

This may be a bit late or already a bit of nostalgia, but I cannot contain myself from writing about Michael Schumacher’s last Formula One race – The 2006 Brazilian Grand Prix. I have just watched the recorded TV coverage for the 2nd time and it does not pay justice to what I saw live at the race track.

Back to October 22nd, 2006: I had bought a ticket to the gigantic backstretch grandstands, which has the cheapest available seats. Interlagos is such a great track for spectators because there is a nice view of most of the action from anywhere. Some people say that A1-Ring in Austria is the only other full size road course with such great views, but I have not been there to confirm. From the backstretch you are able to see the entire track except for the pits and about a quarter of mile of the front stretch – unfortunately you are not able to see the start/finish line, but there had to be a reason for the tickets to be cheaper. The two main overtaking spots – the Senna Esse and the fast left-hander next to the pond at the end of the backstretch – are viewable if you seat right in the middle of the stands.

Since there are no numbered seats, you must get to the track very early to get a nice spot on the upper levels of the grandstands. Besides watching all the preliminary races, it allows you to feel the atmosphere. And it was quite a different atmosphere. Most people were wearing the Ferrari red, which is understandable, since Felipe Massa is Brazilian and was racing for Ferrari. But there were many farewell posters to Schumacher. Most people seemed happy to see Massa on pole, but a little bit sad due to Michael’s departure. Maybe the thought of seeing another great champion leaving reminded them of the emptiness left after Ayrton Senna’s fatal accident in 1994. It certainly reminded me.

It was noticeable that the crowd cheered – almost as loud as they did for Massa –as Schumacher drove by during the grid formation lap. I guess everybody was expecting something special from him. Due to a fuel pump failure in qualifying, he would be starting 10th.

As the race started, there were two loud roars from the crowd. One as Massa made it safely through the Senna Esse and the other as Schumacher did a zigzag on the backstretch looking for some room to pass the cars ahead. He passed both BMW’s on the next corner. He passed his brother Ralf on the front stretch, as he completed the first lap. He passed former teammate Rubens Barrichello right in front of me on the backstretch. The Brazilian crowd did not mind that a Brazilian had just been overtaken. The show was too good to be true. Some people were so excited that they were even jumping on the stands.

Then the safety car was deployed due to Nico Rosberg’s accident just before the end of the first lap. Schumacher was right behind Fisichella, in 6th. After a few laps, the safety car went back to the pits and Schumacher seemed to be very fast behind Fisichella. As he completed another lap, he was side-by-side with Fisichella as he went by the pit wall and out of my line of sight. Almost thirty thousand people on the backstretch grandstands turned their heads to the Senna Esse, waiting for the cars to come by. Fractions of second seemed like minutes. Then I saw a big puff of smoke as Schumacher red car was locking his brakes, closing to the inside, barely in front of Fisichella. That overtaking manoeuvre was historical. I was glad to be there, that was too beautiful too be true. The crowd was louder than anytime before during that weekend.

Unfortunately, I guess the move was not perfect. He may have been slightly touched by Fisichella’s front wing as he finished the pass. On the second leg of the esse, Schumacher almost spun out as he lost control of the rear end of the car, with a punctured left rear tyre. The crowd turned quite. If it were not for the F1 engines, you could hear your own breathing. At that time, I guess even Alonso’s fans wanted Schumacher to continue his show.

Very slowly he crawled back to the pits, where Ferrari changed the 4 tyres and added some fuel. As he came back to the race, he was almost a lap behind Massa. For the next laps, he would be a bit slow because of the heavy load of fuel. Massa had such a commanding lead that it seemed like he slowed down a little bit in order not to put his teammate a lap down.

Then there was some exciting action going on, but the TV did not show most of it. Schumacher was struggling with his car, driving every lap as he was on a hot qualifying lap. I could see him locking his brakes a few times on the trick curvy section in the middle of the track. His lap times started to improve as he burned some of the heavy fuel load.

Almost 30 laps into the 71-lap race, as the other drivers were pitting, Schumacher reached the backmarkers. Every overtake manoeuvre was celebrated on the grandstands, even if it was for a position outside the top ten. He made it to the points as he passed Nick Heidfeld for 8th with about 35 laps to go. The crowd realized that he could make even more.

With 32 laps to go, he got by Kubica on the first corner. Then something weird happened as he slowed down mid-lap and let Kubica went by. I guess we will never know for sure what that was, but it seems like the fuel pump problems he had in qualifying were back. The crowd was quiet again. But Michael regained speed and 2 laps later went by Kubica again.

He was picking up large chunks of track to 6th-place driver, Rubens Barrichello. It was visible; there was no need for a stopwatch. Barrichello pitted with 25 laps to go, and Michael would go in on the next lap. He was 8th on the return, still picking up time on Barrichello. In a couple of laps or so he got by Rubens on the Senna Esse. The crowed roared. I guess there was some resentment for the fact that the Brazilian had never been able to win his home Grand Prix.

As all drivers had pitted, Schumacher was 6h, and Fisichella was 5th. Michael got to the back of Giancarlo with about 15 laps to go. Two laps later, he had the same problem on the mid-section of the track as when he passed Kubica. But as he started to pick up speed again, the crowd forgot about that once again. I realised that the racing gods would not let him retire from his last race. The people were on their feet. It was time for payback. The TV did not show this part very well either. It was a masterful piece of driving. Michael pressured Fisichella so much that the latter lost it under braking for the Senna Esse, with 9 laps to go.

Kimi Raikkonen was the next. The feeling was that he would allow Michael to go by easily since he was already hired by Ferrari for 2007. That did not happen, and I am glad it did not. With 4 laps to go, Schumacher tried an overtaking manouvre on the front stretch, but Raikkonen closed the door to the inside. On the next lap, Raikkonen thought he had closed the inside, but Schumacher found some room between the McLaren and the pit wall. I could barely see the red car as it came towards the Senna Esse, since he was so close to the guard rail. He made his last overtaking manoeuvre, riding wheel-to-wheel with Raikkonen on the first leg of the Senna Esse.

The crowd went nuts. Grown men were in tears.

Schumacher did not have time for any other overtaking manoeuvres. He finished 4th, but that was one of the most amazing races I have ever seen. Everyone was happy. The likeable character that is Felipe Massa had won his hometown race. The competent Alonso was the world champion. The brave Jenson Button finished 3rd after starting 14th. Yet, it was the spectacular Michael Schumacher who had put up one of the greatest shows in the history of Formula One. He will be missed.

--Andre N.