2008 Hungarian Grand Prix - Race Analysis

It has been a long time since I was last able to write comments about a Formula One race. More specifically, since the French Grand Prix - 3 races ago. The problem of not being a professional writer is that sometimes my real job gets on the way. I did manage to watch all the action, though – F1 is a ‘religion’ to me! – so some of my comments today will also reflect some of the last GPs.

Drama in Hungary

First, I would like to start with some comments about the dramatic turn of events at the Hungarian Grand Prix. When Lewis Hamilton got a flat tyre, I was thinking: ‘hey, maybe he destroyed his rubber and that was his fault’. I had already noticed that he had some blisters on his front tyres, even more than is normal for his aggressive driving style. Then Felipe Massa's engine blew up. Some may say that Hamilton was lucky. Yes, that is certainly luck, but if he took care of his tyres, as did his teammate Heikki Kovalainen, he would have won the race. I will not blame him too much, though, because of his commanding victories in Britain and Germany.

In Hungary, I think Felipe Massa as a driver deserved to win, because of the way he started the race – passing the 2 McLarens before the end of the first corner – and his qualifying-like-lap-after-qualifying-like-lap performance. I do not think Michael Schumacher could do any better than that. Yes, that was probably the drive of Massa's life.

The thing is: F1 is a team sport, and the car is built by a team. In engineering those cars, nothing happens by accident. I am pretty sure that whatever blew up was something that the engineers considered a 'calculated risk'. That is what engineers - myself included - say when there are so many things that can go wrong and they just cannot be sure about the outcome. Those things are almost a bet. If F1 were poker, Ferrari's engineers certainly did not have a straight flush. Ok, Massa as a driver did not deserve that fate. He deserved it as a team player though, because that’s the way it is.

(Un)Lucky Heikki?

Heikki Kovalainen deserves credit for his win. He kept on pushing until Massa’s engine gave away. In the old time, until the beginning of the 90’s, that was a very common tactic. That does not work so well anymore because of the high reliability the cars have today. Still, his win is as deserving as many of the ones by Jackie Stewart or Emerson Fittipaldi, for example. Those guys would just push whoever was ahead until their engine blew up or they made a mistake.

We also have to consider the fact that now Kovalainen is clearly McLaren’s number 2 driver. I always thought he could drive on the same level as Hamilton, but he was unlucky a few times in the beginning of the year, and that cost him better results. Still, Hamilton was clearly faster. That was the reason they needed to make him number 1. McLaren has always had a favourite driver, that’s the way they do it. I do not blame them for that, but I hate the fact that they keep posing themselves to the media as a team that gives equal opportunities to both drivers. They say that, and they may even believe that they do it, but then they always find ways – maybe unconsciously – to bend their own system to favour one driver over the other. Right now, I am pretty sure that if they have to choose between Heikki's or Lewis' requests, they will choose the latter's. Little things, but the same things that made David Coulthard look much slower than Mika Hakkinen, when in fact the difference was not that much! I just hope they do not ruin Kovalainen’s bid for a championship anytime in the future, just like they did to Coulthard after he was beaten for the first few races sharing the team with Hakkinen.

Rookies on the run

In Germany, I was very happy to see Nelsinho Piquet withstanding the pressure and finishing second. I was happy for him and for myself, because I had predicted him to be the rookie of the year and for once he was proving me right. Then Timo Glock drove a brilliant race this past Sunday and finished second without the help of a safety car. Maybe I was wrong about who will be rookie of the year.

Right now, though, I am still sticking to Piquet. He also had a good race, starting 10th and finishing 6th. I cannot ignore his fight for the GP2 championship against Hamilton in 2006. Piquet lost it, but in 2007 Glock never had any real challengers in GP2. Still, if I am wrong and Glock starts to shine like he did yesterday, I do not mind being wrong. As long as reality is something better than I had predicted for the sport. The little part of F1 that is still a sport, that is.

Quick notes:

- Since today the topic seems to be good drivers that may be unlucky, what about Sebastian Vettel? He had his 6th retirement in 11 races. Most of those because the STR is unreliable. I guess the young German will have a much better car when he moves to the main Red Bull team in 2009.

- Williams was expecting a good race, but Nico Rosberg and Kazuki Nakajima qualified 14th and 16th respectively. There is not much to be done starting behind at the Hungaroring, as overtaking is almost impossible.


Star of the Race:
Timo Glock.

Shame of the Race:
Ferrari.


--Andre N.

2008 French Grand Prix - Race Analysis

Lap 30 of 70. The rain threatened but never came. It was the only thing that could possibly take the victory away from Ferrari, but even so the red cars were too far ahead of the rest of the field. Kimi Raikkonen was leading Felipe Massa by 6 seconds, and everyone else was more than 20 seconds behind the latter. Felipe had already given up fighting for the win. Then disaster struck for Kimi. Part of the exhaust pipes on the right side of the car cracked, he started to lose power - which translated to a loss of 1 to 2 seconds a lap - and his side pod began to slowly burn.

The final result? A Ferrari 1-2, with Massa inheriting the victory at a track he is not known to be faster than Raikkonen. And yes, Raikkonen was second. What does it tell us? That Ferrari is so dominant at this point of the season that it is hard to predict them to lose the Constructor's Championship. One may claim that McLaren could challenge for the victory if they did not have to face penalties for both drivers - Heikki Kovalainen 5 grid positions for blocking in qualifying, Lewis Hamilton 10 grid positions for crashing into Raikkonen in the previous race and a drive-through for cutting a corner to go by Sebastian Vettel. I have to disagree. The two Ferrari drivers were certainly racing hard until the first pit stop, but I doubt that they were going for that last chunk of power that they could take from their engine mapping. If McLaren were closer, Ferrari would be even faster. Ok, a 1-2 would be difficult due to Kimi's problems, but Felipe would easily win.


Hamilton Self-Destructs

I have seen it happening to pretty much every driver this year. At one point the guy simply makes a stupid mistake and throws away precious points. This time it was Lewis Hamilton. Actually, it was Hamilton for two weeks in a row. He was already starting 13th after the penalty for crashing into Raikkonen in Montreal. He started the race quite well, as did Sebastian Vettel just ahead of him. When both got to the Adelaide corner - the slowest turn of the track - Lewis had a better entrance and a much better exit. That put them side-by-side going into the Nurburgring chicane, a very fast right-left turn combination. Vettel braked before the turn. Hamilton braked deep into the turn, so deep that it was not enough for him to remain on the track. He basically cut the second leg through the tarmac escape area, and remained ahead of his STR rival. Until then, it was no big deal. Lewis should simply let Sebastian go by and he would get no advantage out of his off-road tour.

For some reason, Lewis thought that the move was legal and never let Vettel go by. The marshalls penalized him with a drive-through. After the race, Hamilton still thought he was right! This time he is the deserving winner of the 'Shame of the Race' award.

Once again, McLaren was blinded by the fact that they think their star British driver cannot make a mistake. It was clear on TV that he gained an advantage, so why not radio him and tell him to return the position? Lewis is a young driver and has a lot to learn! He needs coaching. The 'coaches' at McLaren do not seem very good, though. China 2007 is a good example: They allowed Lewis to stay on the track although his tyres were gone, and ultimately he slid out of the race. They trusted his inexperienced call that staying on the track was ok.


Trulli's Brilliant Performance

Is Toyota a car good enough to finish on the podium, fighting for position with a McLaren and a BMW? Certainly not. Yet, Jarno Trulli somehow managed to do just that, including a wheel-to-wheel fight with Heikki Kovalainen with less than 2 laps to go. As Toyota was mourning the death of one of their greatest team members - the guy who led the team during the golden rallying days, Ove Andersson - it seems like everyone gave it a little more. Hopefully they will learn something from this race, because they have one of the largest budgets of F1 and their results have never matched the investment.


Quick Notes

- Fernando Alonso had a disappoint weekend. After qualifying third on a light-fuel load, reality struck hard as a bunch of drivers returned from their stops ahead of him. His demise was a wide turn going into Adelaide, when he lost 7th place to his teammate Nelsinho Piquet.

- Piquet had the strongest performance of his short F1 career. He qualified reasonably well - 11th, but started 9th due to McLaren's grid penalties - and drove a good, constant race. He was braking much earlier than in the previous races. That means he was braking where he was supposed to, because up to now he had the bad habit of braking too deep and too hard going. Maybe Renault found out that his driving style was the reason why his brakes vaporized in Montreal.

- Nick Heidfeld is having problems adapting to this year's BMW. He finished a lousy 13th, while his teammate was 5th. He should adapt quick, because there are a few drivers waiting for his spot. Bring on the Vettel and Alonso rumours once again.


Star of the Race
Jarno Trulli

Shame of the Race
Lewis Hamilton


--Andre N.

Is Hamilton 3-stopping in Montreal?

After a short while away, I am back with my F1 analyses. I was sitting at the hairpin grandstands today (Saturday), so I could see - and hear - a little more than the TV coverage shows. Lewis Hamilton was definitely displaying great car control. He is the fastest driver this weekend. He is so fast that maybe McLaren decided to try a different strategy. It looks like he will make 3 pit stops tomorrow, or at least go for a very short first stint.

His McLaren certainly looked light, because of the way his car was oversteering coming into, in the middle and going out of the hairpin. If he was oversteering like that with a full tank, as the fuel lowers and the tyres go away, the tail will become looser and looser. If that is the case, Hamilton will have a hard time keeping the car on track tomorrow.

My belief at this point is that McLaren is searching for the extra edge that they need tomorrow by trying a different strategy. They have had problems with tyre consumption this whole year, so why not drive less laps with each set of rubber? Hamilton is probably light, and that seems like a good strategy.

Felipe Massa, Kimi Raikkonen, and Heikki Kovalainen seemed heavy. They were braking for the hairpin a little before than Hamilton. Robert Kubica seemed light - not as light as Hamilton. I could not 'read' Fernando Alonso, but if I had to guess, I would say that he is light. His braking point for the hairpin was before Hamilton's, but maybe that is because the Renault is not that good a car.

Whatever happens, the race tomorrow will be fun. Thanks to McLaren and Hamilton for adding excitement to the Canadian Grand Prix! Oh, did I mention that the forecast for tomorrow shows 60% chance of rain? It will be fun!

--Andre N.

2008 Bahrain Grand Prix - Race Analysis

Since Friday, Ferrari seemed to be the team that would dominate the Bahrain Grand Prix. During the practice sessions, another fact could be noticed: Felipe Massa had better car balance than Kimi Raikkonen. If nothing disastrous happened, it was clear to me that they would finish 1-2, with Felipe ahead of Kimi (reference: my previous post Raikkonen and Hamilton under pressure?), and so it happened. It was a brilliant comeback for the Brazilian driver, who had been criticized after making costly mistakes in the previous two races.

Raikkonen was not bad either. He continues to deserve his 'Iceman' moniker, this time for being sensate enough to realize that second place was the best he could get. The Finn knows that many times he cannot match Massa's pace, and settled for the 8 points that put him in the championship lead.

According to my observations, Massa is still faster considering single lap times, but over the course of a race, Raikkonen is more consistent. That reminds me a little of the old Nigel Mansell vs. Nelson Piquet duel at Williams in 1986-87. Due to his own mistakes, the faster Mansell lost a few races to the more consistent Piquet. Both Raikkonen and Massa are long ways from becoming the legends that were Mansell and Piquet, but if I were Massa, I would take a glance at the history books and try to be more consistent. Piquet ultimately won the battle within Williams by winning the 1987 championship.


Not just another German race car

BMW once again showed some promising pace. They seem to be better than McLaren during the race, especially considering that they have less tyre wear than the British team. In fact, their problem is that they cannot heat up their rubber fast enough. That plays a big factor in qualifying. Kubica had to take less fuel than Ferrari and McLaren to be able to get the pole. Once they get around this issue, they will be racing more closely to the red cars. All in all, BMW is leading the Constructors Championship, after finishing 3rd and 4th in Bahrain.

BMW made two mistakes during the race. One at the start, when Robert Kubica had major wheelspin and lost his lead to Massa going into turn 1. The other was when the team provided no information to Kubica about the fact that there was oil on the track. As he lost his grip, Kimi Raikkonen managed to get by him. Those mistakes were not that costly, as the most that BMW could have hoped for was third. Ferrari was in a league of their own and Kimi would eventually get around Robert.

For the second consecutive race BMW got faster, more consistent lap times during their last stint, coincidentally when they used the prime tyres. The cars were lighter on fuel, because the last stint was shorter, but they seemed to be a lot more well balanced. Maybe it is something that BMW's engineers should consider for the next race: two stints with the primes and one with the options.


McLaren struggles, especially Hamilton

If everything went well for Ferrari and BMW, the same cannot be stated about McLaren. Lewis Hamilton was out of control throughout the weekend. On Friday he seemed uncomfortable that his teammate Heikki Kovalainen was very close to - even ahead of - him on the time charts, and crashed into a tyre barrier while trying to be faster. During the race, he got a poor start. His car just did not jump away when the red lights turned off. Later he said it was his own mistake, because he did not press early enough the button that would engage the proper engine setting (reference: post-race driver quotes). At least he raised his hand for that mistake.

By lap 2, Hamilton was in 10th position, behind Fernando Alonso. He still had a chance of finishing at least 6th. Something came loose inside his head, though, because as he accelerated faster than Alonso out of a corner, he did not steer away from the Renault, hit its back, almost flew over it, and lost his front wing. I am not sure what he was thinking. He later made it worse by saying that it was a racing incident. Hopefully he will watch the replay and publicly blame it on himself as soon as possible. I do not recommend waiting one full week for him to change his mind. Felipe Massa just did that after Malaysia and the Ferrari fans were not happy about that.

After the accident with Alonso, Hamilton came in for the pit stop, changed his nose cone, put a lot of fuel and went back to the race with a different strategy. That was not enough. There was no miracle Schumacher-style comeback for him. In the end he finished just 13th.

While everyone talks about Hamilton, Heikki Kovalainen has scored the same amount of points - 14. Watch out for him. He does not lack any natural talent in comparison to Hamilton, and driving the last season in the lousy Renault taught him a couple of things that Hamilton is yet to learn. Yesterday, though, he finished only in a business-like 5th.


Quick notes:

- Fernando Alonso could not score any points this time. With 19 of the 22 cars finishing the race, all he could manage was a realistic 10th for Renault. He raced since the second lap without a small part of his rear wing - chopped off by Hamilton - but that did not affect the results.
- David Coulthard brake-tested Jenson Button going into a corner and 'f'orgot' to check his rearview mirrors. Button avoided the crash under braking, but Coulthard simply turned as if nothing was happening. The two collided. These situations are becoming common to Coulthard. He has to stop blaming them on the other drivers or on plain bad luck. He cannot show a gap, brake early and close the door when the driver behind is already committed to a move.
- Although Honda had disappointing race results - Rubens Barrichello was 11th, Jenson Button DNF -, they have once again shown some improvements. While they still lack straightaway speed, they may be consistently fighting for the points if the new aero package planned for Barcelona fixes that.

Star of the race
Felipe Massa

Shame of the race
Lewis Hamilton

--Andre N.

Raikkonen and Hamilton under pressure?

As I watched Free Practice sessions 1 and 2 for the Bahrain Grand Prix, it was obvious that Kimi Raikkonen was fighting to stay on the track. At one point in FP2 he got a similar time to his teammate Felipe Massa, but that was a single lap. Later Felipe put almost one second between them, but the better part of it was probably due to being lighter on fuel. Still, for the long run, Massa seems better. Raikkonen is struggling for grip and is certainly slower than his teammate.

I still expect a Ferrari 1-2 for the race, but it seems like Massa over Raikkonen this time. Unfortunately I am not in time to change my pick at F1 Pick 6.

It is unclear weather Raikkonen's struggle has anything to do with a faster teammate. Lewis Hamilton, on the other hand, made a critical mistake while trying to match his teammate Heikki Kovalainen. Lewis accelerated too much going over a kerb and skid into the tyre barrier, destroying his car. It was scary, because for some reason, he never took his hands off the steering wheel. He could have been hurt.

Is pressure affecting the two championship leaders? More to come tomorrow and on Sunday...

--Andre N.

2008 Malaysian Grand Prix - Race Analysis

For the entire week prior to the Malaysian Grand Prix, talks were about the rain that would likely fall during at least one of the sessions. Formula One does not seem to like probabilities this year, so the unlikely happened again and we ended up with a dry track for all 5 sessions, including the race.


Everything (Almost) Perfect for Ferrari

Kimi Raikkonen showed the world why he is the current world champion, with a brilliant performance that balanced raw speed and strategy. At the start, he might have passed teammate Felipe Massa going into the first corner, but opted to stay behind since he knew he had fuel for one more lap before the first pit stop. For the next 17 laps he shadowed Massa. Both were pretty quick at this point, but later Kimi would mention at the press conference that they had already reduced the engine's at that time. They were still faster than everybody else and, good for us fans, running in equal conditions. When Felipe came in, Kimi got some clean air and made the best of it, gaining the best part of the 2 seconds that he needed.

Some time was handed to him by the fact that Massa stayed in the pits for about 0.6s longer. I am not sure if Ferrari put more fuel on his car - which would not make any sense -, or if it was just a case of not-so-great pit work. Anyway, Kimi got P1 when he returned to the track and started to pull away from Felipe.

Then it was disaster for Massa. Mental disaster, it seems. After he was more than 4s behind Raikkonen, he should have realized that 2nd place was all he could get. Pressure has never been a factor in his career, and his pace in qualifying showed that. He is a fighter, though, and many times that hurts him more than helps. As he tried harder and harder to keep up with his teammate, he hit the kerb very hard in turn six and his car switched ends between turns 7 and 8. Usually cars understeer going around those corners, so it is very likely that hitting that kerb caused some suspension damage. To make matters worse, he got stuck in the gravel trap and had to abandon the race.


The Best of the Rest

That left the door open for Robert Kubica to finish 2nd. He quietly drove his BMW to the checkered flag, and except for some excessive wheelspin at the start, he made no major mistakes. Since the 2 McLarens had to start back in 8th and 9th - after the blocking penalty in Qualifying - and his teammate Nick Heidfeld lost a few positions going wide around the first corner, no other car that could match his pace was close enough to challenge him. His ideal position would be to finish behind the Ferrari, and luckily for him only one of the red cars made it to the end.

Heikki Kovalainen had a brilliant performance. He outpaced Lewis Hamilton in qualifying, despite having fuel for an extra lap. During the race, he was able to save his tyres, although he drove a long time in traffic, which causes major understeer in today's aerodynamically dependent F1.

Hamilton showed some carelessness with his rubber, just as he did a few times in his rookie season. He certainly needs to improve that, but the main issue for him in Malaysia was that he lost about 10 seconds during the first pit stop, due to a problem with an air gun. At the end of the race he pushed as hard as he could to catch Jarno Trulli, who had a surprisingly good performance for Toyota. As Trulli drove some of his best laps of the race, he guaranteed that Hamilton would finish behind. Those laps were so fast - for a Toyota, that is - and so important, that I must give Trulli the Star of the Race award. Hamilton is still leading the championship, so kudos for him for not trying anything stupid.


Quick Notes:
- Fernando Alonso once again showed that he is pushing Renault to better results than they would get without him. He once again had a fantastic overtake move, this time around David Coulthard. That was only overshadowed by the fact that Nick Heidfeld passed both Coulthard and Alonso as they were fighting against each other.

- Nelsinho Piquet showed a promising race pace. He still has a lot to learn, but he is showing that he can have a year as good as Kovalainen had in 2007. We cannot forget that he fought against Hamilton for the 2006 GP2. What if he drove a McLaren?

- Rubens Barrichello turned the speed limiter off too soon while leaving the pits, and got a drive-through penalty. He later stated that the pit exit was not clearly marked. That is too bad, Rubens, but for some reason the other drivers did not have trouble with that. Good for you that Massa guaranteed the Shame of the Race award with his spin, otherwise...

- Both Williams and STR never showed the same pace from Australia. Sebastian Vettel had a strong showing during the practice sections, but that was it. I wish he had a more reliable car, because he is really great. It was a double DNF for STR and a 'no-pointer' for Williams. I thought Williams was at the same level as RBR, if not better, but now I am not so sure.


Star of the Race
Jarno Trulli.

Shame of the Race
Felipe Massa.


--Andre N.

2008 Australian Grand Prix - Race Analysis

For Lewis Hamilton, it was a walk in the park - Albert Park, that is. He managed to get a good start, not great, but enough to keep him in first place. From there on, he was lucky that all three safety car interventions did not ruin his pit stop strategy. The only moment when he had to push was during his second stint, in order to make sure that he would pit and return to the track ahead of a surprisingly fast Sebastien Bourdais, who was to have no more pit stops until the end of the race.

Heikki Kovalainen also did a very good job for McLaren, and posted the fastest lap of the race. He even would have a chance of challenging Hamilton for the win, if the safety car did not happen right before his final pit stop. He continues to impress, and the 5th place finish just does not show how good a driver he was during the race. His only mistake was during his fight with Fernando Alonso, to which I will get back later.

The weekend was full of surprises, but Lewis' win was very predictable after the strong performance in qualifying. Almost everything else was unexpected. Things that surprised me the most: Ferrari with 2 blown engines - plus another one on Bourdais' STR -, BMW's very competitive race pace, and the large number of retirements - even for round one of the season.

Problems for Ferrari

Talking about Ferrari, what a messy race that was! Everyone in the team made mistakes. The drivers were excessively aggressive. Felipe Massa and Kimi Raikkonen had each one a couple of close calls. I do not blame Massa for the contact with Coulthard. At worst that was a racing incident, if not Coulthard's fault for not giving him enough room. On the other hand, he had to think about finishing the race that was not going well after he tapped the wall all by himself in the first turn of the race. Raikkonen also cannot be blamed for trying to overtake Kovalainen, but he was certainly too optimistic that he could brake so deep - in fact he could not, hence the drive into the gravel trap.

I was not able to understand Ferrari's strategy, either. Instead of calling Kimi to the pits under the safety car - as did Fernando Alonso and Robert Kubica, for example - they waited for the race to restart and 3 laps later he was in, under 'green flag' racing. It would not matter in the end, as he stopped with a damaged engine, just like Massa. Maybe the unpredicted hot weather in Australia caught Ferrari's engineers by surprise, but those engines were in their first one of the two mandatory races.

Bourdais and STR at a Surprising Pace

Sebastien Bourdais drove his STR like a Formula One veteran, although it was only his first grand prix. Team tactics were a big part of the fact that he was about to finish 4th when his engine blew up, but his pace was very good.

Complicated FIA Rules Take Points away from Honda

FIA rules continue to be way too complicated for spectators to understand. Rubens Barrichello received a 10-second stop-and-go penalty for refueling while the pits were closed. After the race, he was disqualified for leaving the pits while the red lights were on.

What was he supposed to do in that situation? He was running out of fuel, so there was no other option but to stop. The fact that he had to make the stop-and-go later already guaranteed that he got no advantage in that situation. What was he supposed to do at the pit exit? Wait for how many minutes before the green light? This rule never made sense to me, and it never will. And the fact that Rubens was allowed to finish the race shows that even the stewards do not know what to make of this rule.

A Wonderful Move by Alonso

Fernando Alonso did a fantastic job with the Renault and finished 4th. So did Hamilton, Heidfeld and Rosberg, but the reason that I will give him the Star of the Race award is because he managed to get by both Raikkonen's Ferrari and Kovalainen's McLaren at the same time. What a move that was! Two laps later he was passed by Kovalainen, but the Finn made a stupid mistake - hit the speed limiter by accident while clearing his visor - that allowed Alonso repass him and finish 4th.

Star of the Race
Fernando Alonso

Shame of the Race
Ferrari. Nelsinho Piquet was a candidate for this award after his lousy qualifying run, but during the race he was fine, considering the fact that his car was damaged after he was hit from behind during the first lap.

--Andre N.

BMW: The Surprise of 2008?

Is BMW going to be the surprise of the 2008 Formula One season? According to Saturday's practice and qualifying times for the Australian Grand Prix, the answer is 'yes'. Robert Kubica will start 2nd. Had he not made a mistake in turn 12 during his final qualifying lap, he would have beaten Lewis Hamilton to the top spot.

I believe that they are much closer to the top 2 teams than everyone had anticipated, which puts than as contenders for race wins this season. Well, someone had anticipated that: Nico Rosberg. He mentioned to journalists a few times that, based on his observations from testing, BMW was going to fight for than 5th place in Australia (as published by F1-Live.com). He said that they were very fast during the winter, although lap times did not show. Would that be the biggest case of 'sandbagging' ever? Maybe... It would be good for F1 if that was the case.

Nick Heidfeld's 5th place at the starting grid, though, seems more like reality for BMW. As fast as they may be, I do not believe that they are at the same level as McLaren and Ferrari, especially for the long runs between pit stops during the race. Nick is probably on a heavier load of fuel than Robert, and seems to be in better shape for the race. He will fight for the podium, but I am not sure about the race win.

On the other hand, if I am wrong and Kubica pits with the other contenders, watch out as he may win the race!

One final note is that Rosberg also pointed out that what impresses him the most about McLaren is how they simulated race starts. That is something easy to understand. F1 has a single supplier for the electronic control units this season, and the company behind it was already a supplier to McLaren last season. Therefore, I am expecting a great start from both Hamilton and Heikki Kovalainen. Heikki will start 3rd, and the odd side of the grid has preference going into the first chicane. I expect McLaren to be leading 1-2 before turn 3. Deep inside, though, I am cheering for Kubica to go for it and add fun to this championship.

Let's not forget that Ferrari's Felipe Massa also seems to have a car to fight for the win. The only certainty after qualifying is that F1 fans all over the world have more than enough reasons to want to watch the Australian Grand Prix.

--Andre N.

Brazil – Race Analysis

Had I not seen it personally, from the backstretch grandstands of the famous Interlagos race track, maybe I would not believe the results. When I got home and watched the recorded version of the TV broadcast, it simply did not show what I saw live. Kimi Raikkonen and Felipe Massa were unbeatable and drove equally. So identically that I was glad that their helmets have different colors so I could tell who was who. Fernando Alonso was very good as well, finding every last ounce of speed that his second-race engine had. And there was a disappointing Lewis Hamilton, one that finally felt the pressure and could not perform to his highest level. In the end the champion got crowned in one of the most unlikely turn of events in the history of F1.

The Iceman kept his cool under the hot sun

Kimi Raikkonen may not be the most exciting driver out there. He certainly is not as aggressive as half of the field and almost never makes mistakes, so there is not much to watch him doing. However he is so competent and fast that no one can complain. He deserves to be the 2007 Formula One World Champion. If we consider the way he partied the night after, he probably deserved to be the 1967 champion as well... Those were the good old times when the drivers were not full-time athletes and half of the fun was just having fun.

Raikkonen drove one good lap after another. So did the hometown driver – Felipe Massa. In fact, I believe Ferrari called Felipe in earlier for his second pit stop, because it was very quick – meaning that he probably had some fuel left on the tank. By the way, did anyone notice that the official FOM TV broadcast never showed Massa’s pit stop times? Make your own conspiracy theory here, but mine is that FOM knew – we all knew! – that Ferrari would do something to switch their driver’s positions and it was a clever way not to let the occasional viewer notice it. If you are reading this, though, you are probably a hardcore fan and you know that Ferrari helped Kimi to win the race. And it makes sense, since F1 is disputed by drivers AND teams.

The crowd did not seem to believe what they were seeing. As the race went on, more and more people started cheering for Raikkonen. When he drove past Massa at the pit exit, most of the crowd applauded, although many felt that the home driver was being robbed. After the end, when Kimi drove back to the pits side by side with Felipe, the crowd finally understood what happened. He got loud cheers, but not as loud as Massa and Michael Schumacher got last year – the former for winning the race and the latter for putting up one of the most amazing drives in F1 history.

Hamilton lost the title

There is no way I can write that Hamilton’s car electronic failure was unfortunate. Yes, it cost him more than 30 seconds, but if it were not for his stupid mistakes during the first lap, he would have a better chance of scoring more points and winning the title. The failure only magnified a problem that Lewis had already caused in China. There he tried to win a race that he did not need to. How come no one advised him not to repeat the mistake? In the beginning he tried to win the Brazilian race! He should have coasted to a 4th place finish, should he not? I guess he does not know how to do it. He won everything he has ever raced before F1. He does not know how to finish 2nd or lower.

Lewis’ first mistake was to allow Alonso to overtake him. He was trying to gain momentum on Raikkonen after braking for the first leg of the Senna Esse. When Raikkonen made a mistake, Hamilton had to steer wide not to hit him, and this allowed Alonso to dive to the inside and finally overtake him exiting turn 3. Hamilton should just have braked behind Massa and simply allowed the Ferrari to go by without a fight. That way there would be no room for Alonso.

Well, Alonso had gone by. Just stay behind him, Lewis, this is all you need to be the champion. No, the kid decides to outbrake Alonso going on the outside into the left hander after the backstretch. He moved to the outside very late, and braked later than I had ever seen anyone over the whole weekend. The crowd went nuts as they knew he would shoot straight past the corner. No one could understand why he was doing that, yet it was fun to watch. Lewis kept making mistakes all around the first lap and a couple after.

Then there was the electronic glitch that cost Hamilton half a lap. He dropped back to 18th, but suddenly his car started to race normally again. I do not believe in conspiracy theories, especially because McLaren clearly wanted Hamilton to win, but it was very strange. Not so strange was his race position, though. I had seen this movie last year with Michael Schumacher. I expected the same amazing comeback from Lewis. He gave signs that he would do so when he got to a pack of 5 cars and in about 2 laps was ahead of them all. He was never constant enough, though. He made small mistakes all around the laps. He never had enough speed. He lost the championship and disappointed me a lot. Even if the media keep praising him so much, now I truly believe that other drivers would be as great as Hamilton if they had a car as good as McLaren to drive. Nico Rosberg, Robert Kubica, and Heikki Kovalainen, for example. If Hamilton survives this defeat to become a better driver, he eventually will be world champion. If he cannot put it behind, his career will be ruined. This is not an exaggeration.

This century’s Fittipaldi

Back in the 1970’s, two-time champion Emerson Fittipaldi was the driver who took care of his car and always waited for the opportunity to win the race. Sometimes he got victories because the guys ahead of him could not preserve the equipment and had to retire. Fernando Alonso won two championships doing exactly the same thing, especially for the later part of the 2006 season.

Alonso had a worse equipment than his teammate and both Ferrari drivers. Because of the huge accident in Japan, he raced with a new engine in China. Since engines can be only switched after 2 races, Alonso had a disadvantage going to Brazil. His competitors could run the engine temperature a little bit higher, maybe use a different kind of lubricant, things like that. It was clear that Alonso lacked power and torque. I believe that he compensated the lack of power by having less wings, but that cost him some time in the middle portion of the track. And especially in that twisty section, there was nothing that he could do to compensate for the lack of torque. However, he just kept enough rhythm to stay third and snatch the title if one of the Ferraris hit misfortune. They did not, but last Sunday it was like if I was watching a documentary about Fittipaldi. Fernando Alonso deserved the title as much as Raikkonen. It was just not meant to be.

Brazil’s quick notes

- Nico Rosberg had a great race and his amazing battle against Robert Kubica for 4th during the last few laps was exciting enough to make the crowd stand up. With this kind of performance he is probably on top of Ron Dennis’ wish list – if Alonso leaves McLaren.

- Hekki Kovalainen’s accident was impressive. I was looking at his car when lots of parts flew from the rear end. He hit the wall that is know by fans and drivers as the Berger Wall – named after Gerhard Berger, who once hit it hard when he drove for McLaren. I am glad that Heikki is ok, because it was a pretty heavy collision going backwards. The HANS device probably helped, but I am sure that his neck will be sore for a week.

- Kazuki Nakajima showed the same form that he was known for in GP2. He was lighting fast at times – he was the 5th fastest driver of the day – and very slow at others. He needs time to settle, but I do not think he will ever be constant enough. His pit crew will appreciate, though, if he is able to stop the car without hitting them.

- Honda had a bad season, but this race was particularly bad as both Rubens Barrichello and Jenson Button retired because of engine problems. This sort of problem may explain why the two cars seem to be so different, with Barrichello being faster all weekend. When an engine starts to fail, it never does it in identical way. This would show in the telemetry, though. Maybe Honda already knew why Jenson was slower during qualifying.

Star of the race:

Nico Rosberg

Shame of the race:

Lewis Hamilton

--Andre N.

Japan – Race Analysis

Not even the huge Mount Fuji is able to shield Formula One from the curse that plagues it at Fuji International Speedway. F1’s bad luck at that venue started during the 1970’s and seems to continue today. The 2007 race started under the safety car because of the heavy rain, a decision that was basically commercial – so that sponsors and TV stations would be happy. For 19 boring laps we watched the entire grid moving around behind the pace car. No one can call that competition, so it has got to be business. The only things that kept the fans awake were some pit stops and an off-track excursion by Felipe Massa.

When the race actually started, it became one of the epic races of the modern era, with brilliant performances by the drivers with the most natural talent. Lewis Hamilton’s performance was certainly one of those, and helped by the fact that McLaren was the best car of the weekend, his victory was no surprise – although no one could be sure about it until the last few laps.


Unlikely but deserving win by Hamilton

If Lewis Hamilton were to be tested at any point this season, it would have been at Fuji Speedway. And it was. Without any references from the previous year and the internal McLaren break-up that would prevent him from getting Fernando Alonso’s settings, the rookie would have a hard time setting up a fast and constant car. He seemed to be on the right track on Friday, at least for one flying lap, but if it were dry on Saturday and Sunday I would still put my money on Alonso.

It rained, though. As usual, the wet track levelled most of the equipment differences and made driver talent a very important factor. Hamilton is a gifted driver, everyone should know that by now, but that only meant that under rain he was in equal terms to the equally gifted Alonso. Unfortunately for the latter, it just was not his day. When he pitted, he rejoined the race behind a group of cars. Hamilton, who had opened up a bit of a gap because of his better visibility as the race leader, was able to return ahead of this pack. That meant that Fernando would have no visibility for a while and about 4 cars between him and Lewis. Then Sebatian Vettel, who had not pitted and had a lighter car, hit Alonso’s sidepod, damaging it quite heavily. Finally, he aquaplaned and hit the outside wall just before turn 6, ending his race and most of his title hopes.

Hamilton also had his share of bad moments, especially when Kubica hit him during an overtaking attempt. Luckily, both drivers were able to return. After Fernando crashed out, Lewis had ‘only’ to hold his position for the win. Mentally, he had one of the greatest challenges of his career. Everyone was behind Lewis, but just imagine driving the last few laps of the race, looking at the mirrors, seeing nothing more than water spray, yet having a phobia that someone was always there. Just like the classic song ‘Fear of the Dark’ from Iron Maiden.

Hamilton got it all together and opened up quite a gap to second place Heikki Kovalainen. Just like any former champion such as Alonso would had done with a car as good as the 2007 McLaren. If Hamilton wins the championship, this is the race that proved that he deserves the title as much as any of the previous winners.


Ferrari almost out of driver’s title chase

Somehow the ‘F1 Fuji curse’ seems to be stronger to Ferrari. In 1976 there was torrential rain that made Ferrari’s Niki Lauda retire due to unsafe conditions. He was not the only one, but he lost the title in that race to McLaren’s James Hunt, who decided not to retire so that he would still have a shot at the title. One year later there was an accident that killed two spectators as Gilles Villeneuve’s Ferrari flew into the crowd after hitting Ronnie Peterson’s Tyrrel. In 2007, it was misery again for the red team, as they started with the wrong tyres – intermediates instead of the FIA-imposed extreme wets – and were forced by the marshals to pit under the first safety car, dropping both Felipe Massa and Kimi Raikkonen to the back of the pack.

When Massa returned to the track after a spin – under the safety car, just to point out that the intermediates were certainly not the best choice - he was penalized with a drive-through for overtaking Nick Heidfeld. My complaint here goes to the FIA, once again for not knowing how to deal with safety car periods. They should just follow an American series rules for full-track yellow flag; the IRL, for example. If the driver is at a position in which he should not be with full track yellows, just make him allow the other drivers to go by and there is no need to penalize him. Anyway, that would not have changed Massa’s race a lot, and now, after finishing 6th, he is mathematically out of the title hunt. At least his battle with Robert Kubica during the last lap was alone worth the admission tickets! It is also good to know that both Felipe and Robert had a laugh about it after the race. F1 should be fun, because it is still a sport – for the drivers at least.

Kimi Raikkonen can still be world champion, but now he is 17 points behind Hamilton with 2 races to go. It is probably not going to happen for him.


Japan’s quick notes

- Adrian Sutil got his first F1 point ever after Vitantonio Liuzzi was punished with 25 seconds for overtaking under a yellow flag. Sutil’s performances for the past two races confirm that he is a very good driver.

- Another driver that impressed me a lot was Sebastian Vettel. He led the race for a brief moment and was in third during the second safety car period. This sort of performance reminds me of Ayrton Senna in his rookie season – 1984 – when he drove for Toleman. I felt really bad for him when he got distracted and hit Mark Webber – while the safety car was still out. This stupid mistake will either make him a much better driver – one capable of winning championships – or will ruin his career altogether. I am hoping for the former, especially after seeing the great car control that he has. As much as I like him, he will be the ‘Shame of the Race’, and he knows he deserves this kind of award.

- I only wish I could see Mark Webber fighting for the win...

- Veterans David Coulthard and Giancarlo Fisichella had the experience that Vettel lacked and were able to protect themselves from disaster, finishing 4th and 5th respectively.

- Rubens Barrichello has been struggling lately at Honda. I expected more than 10th from him yesterday, as he is really a ‘rain specialist’. He needs to be careful, because getting beaten by a teammate time after time is the easiest way for someone to lose the job in F1. Yesterday he was helped by the fact that Button was not on a good day and had to retire with suspension damage on the final lap.


Star of the race:

Heikki Kovalainen. Lewis Hamilton certainly was great, but I picked Heikki because I am sure that he had a harder time driving the not-so-well-balanced Renault. His last lap battle with Raikkonen was an artwork itself. He got overtaken by Kimi in turn 6 and then overtook him back on the outside of turn 10, with the car barely making the turn. Had Sebastian Vettel not hit Webber, he would probably get the award, because STR is certainly a lot worse than most of the cars. His mistake was so bad, though, that he will be the ‘shame of the race’ instead.

Shame of the race:

Sebastian Vettel.


--Andre N.

Turkey – Race Analysis

This past weekend Formula One headed to Turkey for the 12th round of the 2007 season. There is not much history in Turkish motorsport, but having the third Grand Prix there seems to be a good start. The track is one of the favourites among the drivers. It is very demanding and has already one of the famous corners in F1 – the magnificent turn 8, a long high speed corner with one apex for each of its four radii and lateral g-forces in excess of 4. I only wish today’s F1 did not rely so much on aerodynamics, so that two cars could race closer to each other there... Well, this is another chapter of my long-time campaign, which I could call ‘FIA, please bring back the slicks and reduce downforce’.

Overall the race was not the most exciting ever, but for the 2007 standard of completely uneventful races, this one at least had its share of surprises. Felipe Massa’s win was not one of them, as he had beaten Michael Schumacher there last year. The same cannot be said of the unexpected fact that 20 of the 22 drivers finished an event that was held in very hot weather – air temperature in excess of 35°C (95°F). The top surprise had to be Lewis Hamilton’s blown tyre, which cost him two championship points and gave Fernando Alonso one as he dropped from 3rd to 5th.


Ferrari is on a mission

Felipe Massa drove a great race, helped by the fact that teammate Kimi Raikkonen also started on the clean side of the track, in 3rd position. After Raikkonen beat Hamilton going into the first corner, victory belonged to Ferrari, the only remaining battle being which driver would have the better pit strategy. This was already decided in qualifying, as Massa had one extra lap of fuel, which meant that Raikkonen would never have the chance of remaining on the track longer to overtake him when both pitted.

By the way, a distracted fan may not have noticed that Ferrari gives the opportunity for their drivers to fight for the best time in the equally balanced Q2. Whoever has the best time races with was calculated as the ideal fuel load, and the other driver gets one extra lap. It makes sense, since the quickest driver is given a chance to start from pole and the other is given a chance of being more consistent. The two mistakes by Raikkonen during his two hot laps in Q3, though, cost him two positions on the grid. Starting third, all he could do was to hope that he could beat Hamilton at the start, which he did. From there on, he knew he could not get past a car that was exactly like his. Sad but true in modern F1.

Ferrari raced an improved chassis this weekend, and it seems to be better than the previous version. From the onboard camera I could notice since Friday practice that their cars were the ones to beat. Alonso and Hamilton had to fight a little bit with their equipment to keep them on the road. Massa and Raikkonen had minor understeering problems in the first session, but that was it. After that it seemed like they were racing slot cars. During the race, the advantage showed more in terms of better tyre wear than in single-lap times. Over the course of each stint, though, McLaren could not beat them.

Ferrari is certainly on track to make the ideal strong season finish that they need, and the next events certainly suit the red cars. Their best one should be Monza, 2 weeks from now. And they may get an extra help from BMW. There and in Spa-Francochamps I expect BMW to come even stronger as their car is really good at high speed corners when using a mid-to-low downforce setup.


Damage control at McLaren

Lewis Hamilton equalled his career worst streak of finishes without a podium finish: one race. Seriously, the guy is consistent. Since he has the same number of victories as Alonso, Massa, and Raikkonen – 3 for each –, consistency is what gives him the championship lead. He was going to get another podium finish when his tyre blew up. His driving style certainly had an effect on the rubber. I mean, tyres are supposed to last, but it seems like Alonso does a better job saving his equipment during the race than Hamilton does. Not to much to worry about, though, as in the beginning of their careers Michael Schumacher and Ayrton Senna were pretty much like Hamilton is today. I just think it is no coincidence that Hamilton’s tyre blew up and Alonso’s did not.

Hamilton’s advantage is raw speed, and that he showed during qualifying. Alonso was outpaced by him. Fernando even tried a gamble by running his laps in Q3 with the prime tyres. The idea was that he could take back the time that McLaren was losing on the 3rd sector. The option tyres could not keep that first layer of softer rubber for an entire lap. The starting grid shows that the gamble did not pay off. In the end, 3rd was a good result for Alonso.


Kovalainen shows how good he is

Finally we have seen the best of Heikki Kovalainen. After a struggling start of the season, he has consistently improved and is now outpacing teammate Giancarlo Fisichella. In Turkey he also beat one of the superior BMWs – Robert Kubica. He finished 6th, which does not sound like a lot, but his better consistency and speed in comparison to his veteran teammate, even if the Renault is still a very tricky, ‘twitchy’ car to drive are enough for me to call him the star of the race. All I can say to Fisichella is ‘goodbye’. Nelson Piquet Jr. is ready to race and Flavio Briatore will probably drop the veteran driver to give the upcoming star a chance.


Turkey’s quick notes

- Anthony Davidson had a great performance on Saturday, qualifying 11th with his Super Aguri. In the beginning of the race he had to leave the track to avoid a spin by Jarno Trulli and lost a lot of positions. He probably would not get any points because of the few retirements, but dropping back was probably frustrating.

- Giancarlo Fisichella touched Trulli’s rear end, causing the latter to spin. Both had no major damage, but Trulli returned to the race very far behind. Although he had nice battles with the Hondas, he could not finish better than 16th.

- Ralf Schumacher completed the bad Toyota performance by finishing 11th. After the dismal qualifying run that put him 18th on the grid – later he got 2 positions after the Hondas switched engines –, there was not much he could do. I believe his career at Toyota is about to be over.

- Sebastian Vettel is only a very young rookie, but I expected more from him. His qualifying lap was 0.6 seconds slower than his STR teammate Vitantonio Liuzzi, and that was the story for the entire race. He had a hard time holding Adrian Sutil in the slow Spyker during his first, long stint. Not a problem had he picked up the pace during the shorter stints, but that was not the case. Every day Scott Speed’s release from STR seems more political than anything else.

- Nico Rosberg had a great race and finished 7th, showing that he is racing hard despite the poor performance by Williams in the past years. Let's hope that his car improves before this desire to win goes away.


Star of the race:

Heikki Kovalainen

Shame of the race:

Sebastian Vettel.


--Andre N.

Inheriting the King’s Seat – Heikki Kovalainen

The King is gone. Since this a Formula One blog, the first thing that comes to your mind is probably the fact that Schumacher has retired. This is not referring to Schumacher, as he is more than a king; he is an entity to say the least.

Let’s define ‘king’ first. One who is very powerful indeed, considered as the leader of a given group of people. Although Schumacher is one of the greatest – if not the greatest – F-1 drivers of all time, he was not the ultimate leader of the 2006 championship. That was Alonso. He is currently the King of F-1. He is the man to beat.

In one aspect, the world of F-1 is more complex than any kingdom we have heard of, in reality or fiction. No king would ever give away all his knights to somebody else. Alonso has left a seat at the mighty Renault open for Heikki Kovalainen to fill. No war was necessary, he simply left.

Is Kovalainen worthy of taking the King’s seat? He certainly is a great driver. If we consider the drivers who have driven an F-1 car but have not yet won a race, he is up there with the top drivers of the new generation: Lewis Hamilton, Nelson Piquet Jr., Sebastian Vettel, Robert Kubica, and Nico Rosberg.

Some may say he is a more complete driver than Nico Rosberg. I am one of them. When Kovalainen lost the 2005 GP2 championship to Rosberg, you could not tell by the final results how many great races he had. If you only read the final standings, you will see no mention of the epic race at the Nürburgring, in which he won after starting 17th on the grid. Or about his ability to be constantly fast while conserving tyres, which allowed his team to define many race winning tactics that no one else would dare to risk – Something similar to what Ross Brawn used to design for Schumacher.

I also have to point out that Nico Rosberg only won the title in the final four races. And the last two were wins, in Bahrain. They were a clear example of the great track engineers ART Grand Prix (Rosberg’s team) had for that season. I am not saying that Nico Rosberg is not a great driver – he is on my list two paragraphs above. But ART found something in their setup that no one else found. It was clear that both their drivers – Rosberg and Alexandre Prémat - had that extra edge on speed, especially on the second part of the season. That made Rosberg’s job a little easier.

Kovalainen is much more than the driver who was the 2005 GP2 runner-up. As in many professions today, a racing driver’s résumé must contain much more than the ability to perform on the track. The driver must know how to work in – and for – a team. He must communicate well with the people around him, making sure he gets what is needed to be faster. He must adapt his driving style to the circumstances. He must admit his own mistakes. This is the greatest thing about the Renault Driver Development programme, of which Kovalainen is part of since 2002. It teaches young kids what it takes to be a racing driver outside the car. Kovalainen is its best alumnus to date.

As a Renault F-1 test driver in 2006, Kovalainen has not only been constantly fast, but also confirmed his potential to fit within the team. This is the main reason why all title hopes for Renault in 2007 rely on him. This is not an exaggeration. If Fisichella were the main driver for 2007, even Flavio Briattore would bet all his money on Ferrari. They would not even need Raikkonen, Massa alone could handle the task as he has already beaten him in 2006. Renault believes in Kovalainen. So do I.

Heikki Kovalainen is not the King of F-1 yet, but chances are he will be one day.

--Andre N.