Is Hamilton 3-stopping in Montreal?

After a short while away, I am back with my F1 analyses. I was sitting at the hairpin grandstands today (Saturday), so I could see - and hear - a little more than the TV coverage shows. Lewis Hamilton was definitely displaying great car control. He is the fastest driver this weekend. He is so fast that maybe McLaren decided to try a different strategy. It looks like he will make 3 pit stops tomorrow, or at least go for a very short first stint.

His McLaren certainly looked light, because of the way his car was oversteering coming into, in the middle and going out of the hairpin. If he was oversteering like that with a full tank, as the fuel lowers and the tyres go away, the tail will become looser and looser. If that is the case, Hamilton will have a hard time keeping the car on track tomorrow.

My belief at this point is that McLaren is searching for the extra edge that they need tomorrow by trying a different strategy. They have had problems with tyre consumption this whole year, so why not drive less laps with each set of rubber? Hamilton is probably light, and that seems like a good strategy.

Felipe Massa, Kimi Raikkonen, and Heikki Kovalainen seemed heavy. They were braking for the hairpin a little before than Hamilton. Robert Kubica seemed light - not as light as Hamilton. I could not 'read' Fernando Alonso, but if I had to guess, I would say that he is light. His braking point for the hairpin was before Hamilton's, but maybe that is because the Renault is not that good a car.

Whatever happens, the race tomorrow will be fun. Thanks to McLaren and Hamilton for adding excitement to the Canadian Grand Prix! Oh, did I mention that the forecast for tomorrow shows 60% chance of rain? It will be fun!

--Andre N.

The Battle for the 2008 Formula One Championship Begins

As I write this, Formula One is already 3 free practice sessions into the 2008 season. Due to personal issues, I was not able to post any articles in 2008... Until now! Rest assured that all races will be fully analysed in 2008! This blog is all about the day after each F1 race.

Once again this season will be, in my opinion, a close battle between McLaren and Ferrari. The edge seems to be with Ferrari, but if you recall last season, every subtle difference from one track to the other could cause a shift in balance. This year though, the edge will probably remain with Ferrari most of the times, as McLaren has lost 100 million dollars - after the spy row - and the two-time world champion Fernando Alonso.

Alonso will certainly make Renault better and better, but he will have a tough time making them the best of the rest. BMW is my pick to continue as the third force in F1, but with closer competition from RBR and the already-mentioned Renault. Williams will also score better results than in 2007, reliability allowing. The middle pack will be tightly packed together!

The rookie of the year will be Renault's Nelson Piquet Jr., because as good as Sebastian Bourdais is in adapting to F1 after many seasons in CART, he will have a hard time driving the weak STR. Piquet will certainly benefit from Alonso's experience. Timo Glock is not as good as either Piquet or Bourdais, and Kazuki Nakajima is fast but inconsistent.

Who will be driver's champion? Hard to tell. I will go with my pick from 2007, Felipe Massa. I think he is evenly matched with Kimi Raikkonen, although I read many articles from motorsport writers saying that the Finn is better. My guess is that good luck will shift from Kimi to Felipe this year. That has to happen, statistically speaking! It is not all about luck, though. Let's not forget the end of the 2006 season, when Felipe was matching Michael Schumacher's time lap after lap. And his good 2007 campaign, in which he only dropped out of the title's race due to problems related to the car and team, not his driving.

Lewis Hamilton will have a tougher season, because McLaren will suffer the impact from the spy drama. He will eventually survive as a better driver. I am not talking about natural ability, because it is impossible to get better instincts than he already has. I mean the technical aspect of the sport. He will be better and better at developing car setups - and eventually the whole car. Don't get me wrong: He will still fight for the championship. He will just have a harder time than he had in 2007, when he came very close to winning the big title.

So those were some of my points of view. Feel free to disagree if you want! Now let's watch Australia's qualifying, which starts in about 40 minutes!

--Andre N.

China – Race Analysis

Without writing anything about the penultimate round of the 2007 Formula One Championship, just stating what is left for the last race would be enough to quantify all the emotions involved in last Sunday’s race. There will be a three-way championship battle in Brazil, as 7 points separate leader Lewis Hamilton from 3rd place Kimi Raikkonen, with current world champion Fernando Alonso between them. Even a boring race with this type of outcome would be good to watch, but the Chinese Grand Prix reserved us enough excitement – and many battles – throughout all racing field positions. Add to that some very unstable weather conditions, with rain coming and going faster than one can say ‘Shangai’, and you get the picture of an exciting race.

Hamilton sunk the title clinch in the gravel trap

Many times this year I have said that Hamilton is a rookie who has still a lot to learn. His weaknesses are so subtle, though, that sometimes it is even hard for me to make the point. Well, at least for one race analysis it will be easy. Lewis is a rookie, period. It just showed during the race. Why in the world did he push so hard during the battle with Raikkonen, ruining his already worn-out tyres? Why did he drive so fast going into the narrow pit lane when he could barely turn his car in the very wide corners in Shangai? Because he is a rookie. One of the fastest ever, but still a rookie.

It was not completely his fault, though. McLaren should have called him in for a tyre change at least one lap before, when he lost 7 seconds to Raikkonen. They also got carried away by the possibility of a race win and forgot to protect Hamilton’s championship lead.

On the other hand, Alonso was just constant enough to keep his championship very alive. Lewis still depends only on himself to win the title, but Fernando certainly has a good chance. It is clear to me, though, that McLaren will give the better equipment to Hamilton. I do not blame them. If I worked there and heard all Alonso has said about the team, I would not want him to win.

One last shot for Raikkonen – again

Kimi Raikkonen has already been runner-up in the drivers championship twice, he will not be able to stand it happening once again. He will fight until the end. Being the ‘Iceman’ is something that helps him a lot as the season goes down to the wire. The same amount of patience that Hamilton lacked, Raikkonen had in excess. Even while overtaking the struggling Brit, with a car that was at least 3 seconds a lap faster, he had enough patience to obey all yellow flags – and there were many, because cars slipped out as the rain picked up – and to wait for the a mistake from Lewis that gave him enough room.

His run against Alonso depends only on Ferrari, they ‘just’ need to finish 1-2 in Brazil. He still needs some help from mother luck in order to beat Hamilton. The Finn is not known for his good luck, but he is certainly helping his chances of winning by having strong performances such as the one yesterday.

If he ultimately wins the championship, it will be a lot like in 1986. Williams’ teammates Nigel Mansell and Nelson Piquet were the favourites going into the last race of the season. But running on the outside was Alain Prost, who took advantage of the internal fight at Williams to beat both its drivers. It was arguably one of the greatest upsets in the history of F1.

Sebastian’s turnaround

Sebastian Vettel showed that his mistake from Japan is a thing from the past. The kid is growing up with every race. Driving a mid-pack car is a good way to become a better driver. Finishing 4th in that car is certainly something remarkable. Doing that after starting 17th is amazing.

He is finally showing why he got his ride. I have said it before and I will say it again: Scott Speed’s departure was just a political decision. It does not matter to Vettel, who just took advantage of the opportunity and is now showing to be a proper replacement. I am pretty sure that Speed could not have done better. In fact, I think Vettel has that extra ounce of talent that Speed lacked under pressure.

We just cannot forget one fact: Driver’s aside, RBR and STR are improving because of Adrian Newey’s work. In my opinion, the guy is one of the best engineers ever. Although he is known as an aerodynamics specialist, I have to say that his best quality is his problem solving skills. Like all the chief engineers in F1, he divides one big problem – a bad car, for example – into smaller problems – such as a bad front wing. The difference is that he keeps the link between those problems and never loses track of the big picture. The result is constant overall improvement.

China’s quick notes

- Jenson Button finished 5th, one day after his miracle qualifying run put his Honda in the top ten. Besides clocking some of the fastest laps of the day as the track dried out, the most important thing for Honda is that the 4 points put them ahead of Super Aguri in the constructor’s standings. It also helps them not to be beaten by Spyker.

- Ralf Schumacher was racing pretty well until he tried to overtake Vitantonio Liuzzi. He left no room for the Italian, after making a move on the outside and returning to the inside to take the apex. Later, he spun out of the race. He has already announced his retirement from Toyota, but maybe he should retire from F1. For which team could he drive next year? The only option I can think about is Prodrive.

- Alexander Wurz tried a different tactic and switched to the option dry-weather tyres in lap 22. The rain returned and he could not do more than finishing 12th. He then announced his retirement, which is actually a euphemism for ‘Frank Williams kicked him out of the team’. Does it mean Alonso returning to Renault and Nelson Piquet Jr. going to the empty race seat at Williams? Let’s wait for the Brazilian Grand Prix to have more clues.

Star of the race:

Sebastian Vettel

Shame of the race:

Lewis Hamilton, with Ralf Schumacher in the runner-up spot for the most unwanted award.

--Andre N.

Inheriting the King’s Seat – Heikki Kovalainen

The King is gone. Since this a Formula One blog, the first thing that comes to your mind is probably the fact that Schumacher has retired. This is not referring to Schumacher, as he is more than a king; he is an entity to say the least.

Let’s define ‘king’ first. One who is very powerful indeed, considered as the leader of a given group of people. Although Schumacher is one of the greatest – if not the greatest – F-1 drivers of all time, he was not the ultimate leader of the 2006 championship. That was Alonso. He is currently the King of F-1. He is the man to beat.

In one aspect, the world of F-1 is more complex than any kingdom we have heard of, in reality or fiction. No king would ever give away all his knights to somebody else. Alonso has left a seat at the mighty Renault open for Heikki Kovalainen to fill. No war was necessary, he simply left.

Is Kovalainen worthy of taking the King’s seat? He certainly is a great driver. If we consider the drivers who have driven an F-1 car but have not yet won a race, he is up there with the top drivers of the new generation: Lewis Hamilton, Nelson Piquet Jr., Sebastian Vettel, Robert Kubica, and Nico Rosberg.

Some may say he is a more complete driver than Nico Rosberg. I am one of them. When Kovalainen lost the 2005 GP2 championship to Rosberg, you could not tell by the final results how many great races he had. If you only read the final standings, you will see no mention of the epic race at the Nürburgring, in which he won after starting 17th on the grid. Or about his ability to be constantly fast while conserving tyres, which allowed his team to define many race winning tactics that no one else would dare to risk – Something similar to what Ross Brawn used to design for Schumacher.

I also have to point out that Nico Rosberg only won the title in the final four races. And the last two were wins, in Bahrain. They were a clear example of the great track engineers ART Grand Prix (Rosberg’s team) had for that season. I am not saying that Nico Rosberg is not a great driver – he is on my list two paragraphs above. But ART found something in their setup that no one else found. It was clear that both their drivers – Rosberg and Alexandre Prémat - had that extra edge on speed, especially on the second part of the season. That made Rosberg’s job a little easier.

Kovalainen is much more than the driver who was the 2005 GP2 runner-up. As in many professions today, a racing driver’s résumé must contain much more than the ability to perform on the track. The driver must know how to work in – and for – a team. He must communicate well with the people around him, making sure he gets what is needed to be faster. He must adapt his driving style to the circumstances. He must admit his own mistakes. This is the greatest thing about the Renault Driver Development programme, of which Kovalainen is part of since 2002. It teaches young kids what it takes to be a racing driver outside the car. Kovalainen is its best alumnus to date.

As a Renault F-1 test driver in 2006, Kovalainen has not only been constantly fast, but also confirmed his potential to fit within the team. This is the main reason why all title hopes for Renault in 2007 rely on him. This is not an exaggeration. If Fisichella were the main driver for 2007, even Flavio Briattore would bet all his money on Ferrari. They would not even need Raikkonen, Massa alone could handle the task as he has already beaten him in 2006. Renault believes in Kovalainen. So do I.

Heikki Kovalainen is not the King of F-1 yet, but chances are he will be one day.

--Andre N.